In 2016, we examined the trajectory of the electric vehicle (EV) industry and made bold predictions about its future. At the time, advancements in battery technology, automation, and government incentives were beginning to shape an optimistic outlook for EVs. Nearly a decade later, as we stand in 2025, it is time to reassess those predictions, evaluate the progress made, and cast our eyes forward to the next decade.
Our 2016 Predictions: How Did We Do?
Back in 2016, we predicted that by 2025, EVs would dominate the market, thanks to declining battery costs, increased range, and widespread adoption of autonomous driving features. While progress has been significant, reality has become more complex. Let’s see how we did:
1. Market Penetration: EVs have experienced exponential growth, but full market dominance remains elusive. As of 2025, EVs accounted for approximately 30% of new vehicle sales globally, with adoption rates varying by region. Europe and China have surged ahead due to aggressive regulatory policies, while the U.S. has lagged slightly, though new federal incentives are accelerating growth, according to the International Energy Agency.
2. Battery and Charging Technology: The expectation that battery prices would drop below $100 per kWh by 2025 has been largely realized, dramatically reducing vehicle costs. A 2023 report by Nature Energy says advances in solid-state batteries promise even greater energy density and faster charging times, with mass production expected by 2030. Fast-charging networks have expanded, though charging infrastructure gaps remain a barrier to full adoption.
3. Vehicle Automation: While automation was expected to drive EV adoption, full autonomy remains a work in progress. Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) have become standard in many EVs, but fully autonomous vehicles are still in limited testing phases due to regulatory and technological hurdles.
Key Drivers of EV Growth in 2025
Several factors are now driving the next phase of EV adoption:
Automaker Commitments: Major automakers have pivoted toward ramping up and diversifying their EV lineups. Companies like General Motors, Ford, and Volkswagen have announced plans to significantly reduce ICE vehicles by the mid-2030s. The rise of new players like Rivian, Lucid, and BYD has further intensified competition, driving innovation and affordability.
Infrastructure Expansion: Charging networks are expanding rapidly, addressing one of the biggest consumer concerns. Companies like Tesla, Electrify America, and Shell Recharge are deploying ultra-fast chargers that can replenish an EV battery to 80% in under 20 minutes. The integration of bidirectional charging and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology is also gaining traction, allowing EVs to contribute to grid stability, according to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
Total Cost of Ownership Benefits: Thanks to rapid advancements in battery chemistry, the cost of electric vehicles (EVs) is steadily decreasing, while their maintenance expenses remain considerably lower than those associated with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This combination of reduced upfront costs and lower long-term upkeep makes the overall cost of ownership for EVs increasingly competitive, helping to position them as a more attractive option for a wider range of consumers across various market segments.
Challenges and Emerging Trends
Despite this progress, challenges remain that could slow EV adoption. We see three areas that could most practically impact the great adoption of electric vehicles.
1. Raw Material Supply Chain Risks: The demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel has surged, raising concerns about supply chain bottlenecks and environmental impact. Efforts are underway to develop more sustainable mining practices and expand battery recycling programs to mitigate these issues.
2. Affordability and Consumer Perception: While ongoing reductions in EV prices have broadened market appeal, affordability remains a significant barrier, particularly for lower-income consumers. Government incentives—such as tax credits, rebates, and grants—play a critical role in alleviating the upfront cost burden and driving adoption. At the same time, although advancements in battery technology are easing range anxiety, concerns persist in areas with limited charging infrastructure, influencing consumer buying decisions.
3. Energy Grid Impact: As EV adoption grows, power grids must be modernized to handle increased demand. Renewable energy integration will be critical to ensure that EVs contribute to decarbonization rather than shifting emissions to power generation.
Looking Ahead: The Future of EVs in 2035
With the lessons of the past decade in mind, what can we expect for EVs in the next ten years?
Mass Electrification of Fleets: Commercial and government fleets are shifting to electric en masse, accelerating total vehicle electrification.
Widespread Solid-State Batteries: By 2030, solid-state batteries are expected to become standard, offering ranges exceeding 600 miles on a single charge and dramatically reducing charging times.
Autonomous EV Integration: By 2035, autonomous electric taxis and delivery vehicles are projected to be commonplace, transforming urban mobility.
Hyperconnected Smart Vehicles: EVs will become integral to smart city ecosystems, with AI-driven traffic management, real-time energy optimization, and seamless vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication.
Summary
While some of the 2016 predictions have materialized, others have evolved with the realities of technological, economic, and regulatory developments. The EV revolution is undeniably underway, but full adoption will be a gradual process, shaped by ongoing advancements and policy decisions. Looking forward, EVs are set to redefine transportation by 2035, not just as vehicles but as integral components of a cleaner, smarter, and more efficient energy ecosystem.